Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Marta Kostyuk
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Marta Kostyuk
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
7-3 (W-L)
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Sakkari
2–2
Marta Kostyuk
(4 last)
- 30 Jul1-2 16-17L
- 05 Jul1-2 13-13L
- 19 Oct2-0 12-8W
- 31 Aug2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1541 · Marta Kostyuk 1533
| Maria Sakkari | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.3 | 12.6-11 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 42% | 56.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.5
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Maria Sakkari 2 – 2 Marta Kostyuk (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sakkari 2–2 Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Women | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 05/07/23 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 19/10/22 WTA Guadalajara | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/08/21 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Donna Vekic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Storm Hunter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Nao Hibino WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Robin Montgomery US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk?
Our model gives 58% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.