Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
6-4 (W-L)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hubert Hurkacz
2–5
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
(7 last)
- 29 Sept0-2 10-13L
- 01 Jan1-2 13-15L
- 27 Jun2-3 29-27L
- 04 May2-1 17-16W
- 17 Aug2-1 18-9W
- 25 Feb0-2 7-13L
- 02 Sept1-3 14-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1648 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1581
| Hubert Hurkacz | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1648 vs 1581).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.5 aces and 60.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 2–5 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (7).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.8-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-11.3 | 14.6-12.8 |
| Aces | 13.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.9% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 60.3% | 37% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 25.5
Over 25.5: 47% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 53% · 1.83
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 2 – 5 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 2–5 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/26 ATP Chengdu | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/01/24 United Cup | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/06/22 Wimbledon | 2-3 | 29-27 | L |
| 04/05/22 ATP Madrid | 2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/02/21 ATP Montpellier | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09/20 US Open | 1-3 | 14-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | James Duckworth ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/10 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-31 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
Our model gives 54% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.