Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Alexander Bublik
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Alexander Bublik
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Alexander Bublik
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
1–3
Alexander Bublik
(4 last)
- 24 Jun0-2 8-13L
- 11 Apr2-1 15-12W
- 06 Feb0-2 7-12L
- 03 Mar0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1601 · Alexander Bublik 1526
| Alexander Zverev | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1601 vs 1526).
- Alexander Bublik dominates on serve: 12.4 aces and 44.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 1–3 Alexander Bublik (4).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-11.6 | 14.1-12.1 |
| Aces | 10.6 | 12.4 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 77% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.5
Over 22.5: 67% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 33% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Zverev 1 – 3 Alexander Bublik (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 1–3 Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/23 ATP Halle | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/04/23 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/02/22 ATP Montpellier | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/03/21 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Yibing Wu ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik?
Our model gives 67% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.