Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Arthur Gea · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Gea
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Gea 1600 · Jakub Mensik 1539
| Arthur Gea | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1600 vs 1539).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 50% break avg.
- Jakub Mensik dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 42.4% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Gea | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1 | 1.7-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.6-13.7 | 14.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 50% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.9
Over 22.5: 75% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 25% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Ben Shelton ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Brandon Nakashima Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 19/09 | Ben Shelton Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 54% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.