Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
2–2
Karen Khachanov
(4 last)
- 30 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 26 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 22 Feb1-2 15-19L
- 05 Sept3-2 22-20W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1594 · Karen Khachanov 1583
| Alex De Minaur | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 57.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11.5 | 16.9-12.2 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 57.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.90
H2H · Alex De Minaur 2 – 2 Karen Khachanov (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 2–2 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/25 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/10/24 ATP Vienna | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/02/22 ATP Dubai | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 05/09/20 US Open | 3-2 | 22-20 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 55% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.