Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Daria Kasatkina · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Kasatkina
2–4
Jelena Ostapenko
(6 last)
- 13 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 15 May1-2 10-16L
- 01 Jul1-2 13-17L
- 24 Jun1-2 13-14L
- 02 Sept2-0 12-5W
- 09 Apr2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1471 · Jelena Ostapenko 1488
| Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina 2–4 Jelena Ostapenko (6).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (8/match).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (9.1/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-13.8 | 10.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 2 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 8 | 9.1 |
| 1st serve % | 57.5% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.9
Over 20.5: 63% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 37% · 1.90
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 2 – 4 Jelena Ostapenko (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 2–4 Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/24 WTA Adelaide | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/05/23 WTA Rome | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/07/21 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 24/06/21 WTA Eastbourne | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 02/09/17 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04/17 WTA Charleston | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 55% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.