Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Valentin Vacherot
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Valentin Vacherot
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
5-5 (W-L)
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1548 · Valentin Vacherot 1555
| Tommy Paul | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7 aces and 48.3% break avg.
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.4 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-14.2 | 14-13.9 |
| Aces | 7 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 78.3% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 26.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.9
Over 24.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 37% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Valentin Vacherot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot?
Our model gives 53% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.