Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Zizou Bergs · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Zizou Bergs
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Zizou Bergs
6-4 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Zizou Bergs
0–1
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(1 last)
- 27 Sept0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zizou Bergs 1537 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1629
| Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1537 vs 1629).
- Zizou Bergs dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Zizou Bergs 0–1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (1).
- Note: Zizou Bergs makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.2 | 2.3-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.7-13.1 | 17.6-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +7
Over 19.5: 89% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 11% · 1.80
H2H · Zizou Bergs 0 – 1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zizou Bergs 0–1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 ATP Tokyo | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zizou Bergs
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Ignacio Buse ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Vit Kopriva ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 19/09 | Jurij Rodionov Davis Cup |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Lukas Neumayer Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/09 | Jesper De Jong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-19 | W |
| 02/09 | Carlos Taberner US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 21/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 09/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 06/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 04/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Jaime Faria US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 77% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.