Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Taylor Fritz
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · Taylor Fritz
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Taylor Fritz
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Taylor Fritz
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
4–3
Taylor Fritz
(7 last)
- 07 Jan2-0 13-9W
- 21 Jan1-3 19-24L
- 14 Apr0-2 6-12L
- 24 Jan3-2 26-23W
- 30 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 20 Sept2-1 17-15W
- 28 Jun0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1594 · Taylor Fritz 1529
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1594 vs 1529).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 4–3 Taylor Fritz (7).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.9-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-11.4 | 15.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 10.3 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.4
Over 22.5: 66% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 34% · 2.00
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 4 – 3 Taylor Fritz (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 4–3 Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 United Cup | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/01/24 Australian Open | 1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 14/04/23 ATP Monte Carlo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/01/22 Australian Open | 3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 30/10/19 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/09/19 Laver Cup | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/06/18 Boodles Challenge | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Norbert Gombos Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
Taylor Fritz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 26/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 05/09 | Francisco Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Mattia Bellucci US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Darwin Blanch US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 20/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Taylor Fritz?
Our model gives 51% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.