Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Dalibor Svrcina
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Dalibor Svrcina
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
8-2 (W-L)
Dalibor Svrcina
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
2–0
Dalibor Svrcina
(2 last)
- 04 Oct2-0 12-2W
- 30 Jul2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1614 · Dalibor Svrcina 1552
| Daniil Medvedev | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1614 vs 1552).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 14.1 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 2–0 Dalibor Svrcina (2).
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (7.5/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-10.7 | 15.6-14.2 |
| Aces | 14.1 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 7.5 |
| 1st serve % | 82.5% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +6
Over 19.5: 85% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 15% · 1.83
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 2 – 0 Dalibor Svrcina (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 2–0 Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/07/25 ATP Toronto | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
Dalibor Svrcina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 08/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/10 | Billy Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 24/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Rio Noguchi ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Philip Sekulic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Valentin Royer US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 28/08 | Mackenzie McDonald US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina?
Our model gives 73% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.