Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Pablo Carreno Busta · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Carreno Busta
4-6 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pablo Carreno Busta
0–1
Felix Auger Aliassime
(1 last)
- 15 Feb0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Carreno Busta 1518 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1524
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 13.6 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Pablo Carreno Busta 0–1 Felix Auger Aliassime (1).
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.8 | 15.7-15.8 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 13.6 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 78% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 43.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4
Over 22.5: 76% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 24% · 1.80
H2H · Pablo Carreno Busta 0 – 1 Felix Auger Aliassime (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pablo Carreno Busta 0–1 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/20 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/09 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Quentin Halys Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 03/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 61% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.