Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Donna Vekic
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Donna Vekic
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Donna Vekic
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
6-4 (W-L)
Donna Vekic
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Sakkari
4–6
Donna Vekic
(10 last)
- 19 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 25 Apr2-0 12-5W
- 24 Jun0-2 10-13L
- 10 Feb2-0 13-9W
- 11 Oct0-2 7-13L
- 15 Jan1-2 12-15L
- 29 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 07 Mar2-0 12-6W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1512 · Donna Vekic 1442
| Maria Sakkari | Donna Vekic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Sakkari (rating 1512 vs 1442).
- Maria Sakkari is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Maria Sakkari 4–6 Donna Vekic (10).
- Note: Donna Vekic makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Donna Vekic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.9 | 12.6-14.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 33.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.6
Over 20.5: 67% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 33% · 1.83
H2H · Maria Sakkari 4 – 6 Donna Vekic (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sakkari 4–6 Donna Vekic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/25 WTA Monterrey | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/04/24 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06/23 WTA Berlin | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/02/23 WTA Linz | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/10/22 WTA San Diego | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/01/20 WTA Adelaide | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/09/18 WTA Beijing | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/03/18 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Storm Hunter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Nao Hibino WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Robin Montgomery US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Donna Vekic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/10 | Lin Zhu WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Xinyu Wang WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ann Li US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Talia Gibson US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 16/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Donna Vekic?
Our model gives 61% to Maria Sakkari, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.