Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Learner Tien · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
7-3 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1535 · Casper Ruud 1531
| Learner Tien | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-14.4 | 13.3-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.7
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Zachary Svajda ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Flavio Cobolli Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-29 | L |
| 06/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Gael Monfils US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Nuno Borges US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 54% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.