Prediction: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Team pages: Ekaterina Alexandrova · Leylah Annie Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ekaterina Alexandrova
5-5 (W-L)
Leylah Annie Fernandez
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ekaterina Alexandrova
3–1
Leylah Annie Fernandez
(4 last)
- 06 Jan2-1 15-12W
- 29 Aug2-1 18-17W
- 15 Aug2-0 13-9W
- 03 Jan0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1541 · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1570
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Ekaterina Alexandrova 3–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (4).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (4.9/match).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.1 | 12.1-9 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.7
Over 22.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 55% · 1.83
H2H · Ekaterina Alexandrova 3 – 1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ekaterina Alexandrova 3–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/25 WTA Adelaide | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/08/23 US Open Women | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/01/22 WTA Adelaide | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Linda Noskova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Kimberly Birrell US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shuai Zhang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Annie Fernandez?
Our model gives 50% to Ekaterina Alexandrova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.