Prediction: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Daria Kasatkina
Team pages: Sara Sorribes Tormo · Daria Kasatkina
Prediction summary
Winner
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Daria Kasatkina
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sara Sorribes Tormo
7-3 (W-L)
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sara Sorribes Tormo
1–1
Daria Kasatkina
(2 last)
- 02 May0-2 2-12L
- 03 May2-1 13-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sara Sorribes Tormo 1525 · Daria Kasatkina 1467
| Sara Sorribes Tormo | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sara Sorribes Tormo (rating 1525 vs 1467).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (8.9/match).
Statistics
| Sara Sorribes Tormo | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.3 | 12.6-14 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 8.9 |
| 1st serve % | 59.6% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 63.8% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.9
Over 21.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Sara Sorribes Tormo 1 – 1 Daria Kasatkina (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sara Sorribes Tormo 1–1 Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 WTA La Bisbal D'Emporda | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/05/22 WTA Madrid | 2-1 | 13-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sara Sorribes Tormo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Talia Gibson WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Aliona Falei WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Wushuang Zheng WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Viktoria Morvayova WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Caroline Dolehide WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/09 | Ena Koike WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Cadence Brace WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 31/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Daria Kasatkina?
Our model gives 53% to Daria Kasatkina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.