Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Yi Zhou
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Yi Zhou
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
6-4 (W-L)
Yi Zhou
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1627 · Yi Zhou 1480
| Hubert Hurkacz | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1627 vs 1480).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 62% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-11.1 | 11.6-13.6 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 62% | 26.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4
Over 20.5: 76% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 24% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | James Duckworth ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 07/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Jie Cui Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou?
Our model gives 78% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.