Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
6-4 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1514 · Brandon Nakashima 1583
| Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1514 vs 1583).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.3 | 14.2-12 |
| Aces | 11 | 10.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 25.5 · -2.1
Over 25.5: 36% · 1.90
Under 25.5: 64% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Jakub Mensik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 57% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.