Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Karen Khachanov · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Karen Khachanov
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karen Khachanov
5–0
Adrian Mannarino
(5 last)
- 14 Jan3-0 19-12W
- 27 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 21 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 16 Jan3-1 22-19W
- 28 Sept2-1 15-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karen Khachanov 1570 · Adrian Mannarino 1526
| Karen Khachanov | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karen Khachanov (rating 1570 vs 1526).
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 48.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Karen Khachanov 5–0 Adrian Mannarino (5).
Statistics
| Karen Khachanov | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.1 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.3-13.4 | 12.7-13.2 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 30.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.3
Over 21.5: 77% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 23% · 1.90
H2H · Karen Khachanov 5 – 0 Adrian Mannarino (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karen Khachanov 5–0 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/25 Australian Open | 3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/10/21 ATP St Petersburg | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/10/18 ATP Moscow | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/01/17 Australian Open 2017 | 3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 28/09/16 Others | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 65% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.