Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 11/10, 13:30
Prediction: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
9-1 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1–3
Frances Tiafoe
(4 last)
- 23 Mar0-2 11-14L
- 27 Feb2-1 18-13W
- 13 Aug0-2 9-13L
- 29 Apr1-2 18-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1570 · Frances Tiafoe 1603
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1–3 Frances Tiafoe (4).
Statistics
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.8 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-12.1 | 16.9-15.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 39% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.4
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.90
H2H · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 3 Frances Tiafoe (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1–3 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 27/02/25 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/04/22 ATP Estoril | 1-2 | 18-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-31 | L |
| 03/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Kei Nishikori ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 52% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.