Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1588 · Rei Sakamoto 1553
| Alex De Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 44.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.6 | 14.7-13.3 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 13.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 76.9% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.7
Over 21.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 26% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 66% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.