Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
29.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1583 · Arthur Gea 1582
| Ben Shelton | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 52.2% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.3 | 2.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 19-16.7 | 18.5-14.4 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 76% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +7.3
Over 22.5: 90% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 10% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 61% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.