Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Bu Yunchaokete vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Bu Yunchaokete · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Bu Yunchaokete
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bu Yunchaokete
8-2 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Bu Yunchaokete
0–1
Casper Ruud
(1 last)
- 26 Aug0-3 10-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bu Yunchaokete 1530 · Casper Ruud 1504
| Bu Yunchaokete | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Bu Yunchaokete 0–1 Casper Ruud (1).
Statistics
| Bu Yunchaokete | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12.1 | 14-13 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.7% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.1
Over 23.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 42% · 1.83
H2H · Bu Yunchaokete 0 – 1 Casper Ruud (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bu Yunchaokete 0–1 Casper Ruud
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/24 US Open | 0-3 | 10-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bu Yunchaokete
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Michael Zheng ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 02/09 | Rafael Jodar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Borna Gojo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bu Yunchaokete vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 52% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.