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Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff

Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Jan-Lennard Struff

Prediction summary
Winner
74% 26%
Daniil Medvedev Jan-Lennard Struff
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev 9-1 (W-L)
WWLWWWWWWW
Jan-Lennard Struff 5-5 (W-L)
LLLWLWWWLW
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev 8–2 Jan-Lennard Struff (10 last)
  • 03 Oct2-0 12-7W
  • 03 Jul0-3 17-21L
  • 25 Feb2-0 13-10W
  • 14 Feb2-0 12-5W
  • 05 Jul3-1 23-16W
  • 04 Dec2-0 12-8W
  • 29 Jun3-1 23-17W
  • 15 Jun0-2 9-13L

Showing the 8 with a final score we have.

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1614 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1514
Daniil MedvedevJan-Lennard Struff
Our model64%36%
Market83%17%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

  • Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1614 vs 1514).
  • Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 13.4 aces and 40% break avg.
  • Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 48.4% break avg.
  • Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
  • Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 8–2 Jan-Lennard Struff (10).
  • Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.3/match).

Statistics

Daniil MedvedevJan-Lennard Struff
Win %90%50%
Win % · Hard 90% (10) 50% (8)
Sets (G-P)2-0.41.4-1.3
Games (G-P)14.7-10.312.1-13.3
Aces13.49.5
Double faults3.24.3
1st serve %82.4%70.7%
Break %40%48.4%
Estimated total games (ours) 24.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.3
Over 21.5: 72% · 1.83 Under 21.5: 28% · 1.83

H2H · Daniil Medvedev 8 – 2 Jan-Lennard Struff (10)

Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 8–2 Jan-Lennard Struff

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DateSetsGamesRes.
03/10/26
ATP Beijing
2-012-7W
03/07/26
Wimbledon
0-317-21L
25/02/25
ATP Dubai
2-013-10W
14/02/25
ATP Marseille
2-012-5W
05/07/24
Wimbledon
3-123-16W
04/12/21
Davis Cup
2-012-8W
29/06/21
Wimbledon
3-123-17W
15/06/21
ATP Halle
0-29-13L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daniil Medvedev

WWWWW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
04/10 Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Beijing · Hard
 2-0 13-9 W
03/10 Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Beijing · Hard
 2-0 12-7 W
02/10 Pablo Carreno Busta
ATP Beijing · Hard
 2-0 12-6 W
29/09 Andrey Rublev
ATP Hangzhou · Hard
 2-0 13-9 W
28/09 Roman Safiullin
ATP Hangzhou · Hard
 2-0 13-9 W
27/09 Coleman Wong
ATP Hangzhou · Hard
 2-1 18-13 W
26/09 Valentin Royer
ATP Hangzhou · Hard
 2-0 13-9 W
06/09 Frances Tiafoe
US Open · Hard
 0-3 16-20 L
04/09 Arthur Rinderknech
US Open · Hard
 3-0 18-12 W
02/09 Sebastian Gorzny
US Open · Hard
 3-0 19-9 W

Jan-Lennard Struff

WLWLW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
08/10 Martin Landaluce
ATP Shanghai · Hard
 2-0 12-8 W
03/10 Daniil Medvedev
ATP Beijing · Hard
 0-2 7-12 L
30/09 Thiago Agustin Tirante
ATP Beijing · Hard
 2-0 12-5 W
03/09 Francisco Cerundolo
US Open · Hard
 2-3 23-28 L
01/09 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
US Open · Hard
 3-0 18-10 W
15/08 Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Cincinnati · Hard
 0-2 7-12 L
13/08 Roman Andres Burruchaga
ATP Cincinnati · Hard
 2-1 15-15 W
04/08 Alex Michelsen
ATP Montreal · Hard
 1-2 8-15 L
22/07 Mariano Navone
ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay
 0-2 3-12 L
21/07 Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay
 2-1 16-16 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff?

Our model gives 74% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.