Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Botic Van De Zandschulp · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Botic Van De Zandschulp
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
26.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Botic Van De Zandschulp
3-7 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botic Van De Zandschulp 1559 · Alex Michelsen 1559
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Botic Van De Zandschulp dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 46.8% break avg.
- Note: Botic Van De Zandschulp makes many double faults (5.9/match).
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.4 | 2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.4-16.1 | 15.7-13.3 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 74% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.3
Over 22.5: 78% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 22% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 29/09 | Jie Cui ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 07/09 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 05/09 | Zizou Bergs US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-27 | W |
| 04/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 57% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.