Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
25.9Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1498 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1637
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1498 vs 1637).
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 2.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-13.2 | 18.2-12.9 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 31.5% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +7.4
Over 18.5: 90% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 10% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 27/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 14/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Taylor Fritz Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 09/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 06/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 04/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Jaime Faria US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Safiullin US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 82% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.