Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Valentin Vacherot
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Valentin Vacherot
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1495 · Valentin Vacherot 1555
| Sebastian Baez | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valentin Vacherot (rating 1495 vs 1555).
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.2 | 14.6-13.9 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 79% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 23.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot?
Our model gives 67% to Valentin Vacherot, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.