Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz
Team pages: Matteo Arnaldi · Taylor Fritz
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Arnaldi
Taylor Fritz
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Arnaldi
6-4 (W-L)
Taylor Fritz
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Arnaldi
1–1
Taylor Fritz
(2 last)
- 25 Jul0-2 7-12L
- 27 Feb2-1 16-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Arnaldi 1487 · Taylor Fritz 1512
| Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 45.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.7 | 1.7-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-15.6 | 15.2-12.8 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.8
Over 21.5: 80% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 20% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Arnaldi 1 – 1 Taylor Fritz (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Arnaldi 1–1 Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/25 ATP Washington | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/02/24 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
Taylor Fritz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 26/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 05/09 | Francisco Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Mattia Bellucci US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Darwin Blanch US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 20/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz?
Our model gives 66% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.