Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 12:00
Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Novak Djokovic · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Novak Djokovic
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Novak Djokovic
6-4 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Novak Djokovic
8–0
Hubert Hurkacz
(8 last)
- 24 May2-1 19-19W
- 16 Nov2-1 17-13W
- 09 Jul3-1 25-23W
- 02 Mar2-0 13-8W
- 06 May2-0 12-7W
- 06 Nov2-1 16-12W
- 05 Jul3-1 25-17W
- 27 May3-0 18-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Novak Djokovic 1551 · Hubert Hurkacz 1613
| Novak Djokovic | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1551 vs 1613).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.3 aces and 60.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Novak Djokovic 8–0 Hubert Hurkacz (8).
Statistics
| Novak Djokovic | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1.4 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.4-17.3 | 15.3-12.9 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 13.3 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 60.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +4.7
Over 23.5: 79% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 21% · 1.83
H2H · Novak Djokovic 8 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Novak Djokovic 8–0 Hubert Hurkacz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/25 ATP Geneva | 2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 16/11/23 ATP World Tour Finals | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 09/07/23 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 25-23 | W |
| 02/03/23 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/05/22 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/07/19 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 27/05/19 French Open | 3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novak Djokovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | James Duckworth ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 52% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.