Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Alejandro Tabilo · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
1–2
Pablo Carreno Busta
(3 last)
- 06 May2-0 12-3W
- 17 Oct1-2 15-14L
- 01 Jan0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1485 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1513
| Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 1–2 Pablo Carreno Busta (3).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-13.4 | 11.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.4
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 1–2 Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10/25 Challenger Olbia | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 01/01/22 ATP Cup | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 54% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.