Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
4-6 (W-L)
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
2–0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
(2 last)
- 18 Aug2-1 15-13W
- 02 Apr2-1 15-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1524 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1555
| Tommy Paul | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 46.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 2–0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.6 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-15 | 13.7-11.2 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 46.3% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.2
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.83
H2H · Tommy Paul 2 – 0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 2–0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/04/26 ATP Houston | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Valentin Royer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Jie Cui ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Ignacio Buse Davis Cup |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 19/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
Our model gives 57% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.