Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Thiago Agustin Tirante · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Agustin Tirante
5-5 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1527 · Rafael Jodar 1536
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-13.3 | 11.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 10.6 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 27.5% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 51% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 49% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 21/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Novak Djokovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jan Choinski ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 09/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 61% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.