Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Luciano Darderi · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Luciano Darderi
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luciano Darderi
4-6 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luciano Darderi
0–1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(1 last)
- 16 Jun1-2 16-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luciano Darderi 1518 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1588
| Luciano Darderi | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1518 vs 1588).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Luciano Darderi 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1).
- Note: Luciano Darderi makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Luciano Darderi | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1.9-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-13.2 | 15.2-12.7 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 21.6% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.8
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Luciano Darderi 0 – 1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luciano Darderi 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/25 ATP Halle | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 05/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Norbert Gombos Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 64% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.