Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1-9 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
0–1
Felix Auger Aliassime
(1 last)
- 25 May0-3 7-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1448 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1509
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Felix Auger Aliassime (rating 1448 vs 1509).
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 14.9 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0–1 Felix Auger Aliassime (1).
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-13.4 | 17-16.5 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 14.9 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +6.5
Over 19.5: 87% · 2.00
Under 19.5: 13% · 1.72
H2H · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 – 1 Felix Auger Aliassime (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0–1 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/22 French Open | 0-3 | 7-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Quentin Halys Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 03/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 77% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.