Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Jiri Lehecka vs Nuno Borges
Team pages: Jiri Lehecka · Nuno Borges
Prediction summary
Winner
Jiri Lehecka
Nuno Borges
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jiri Lehecka
8-2 (W-L)
Nuno Borges
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jiri Lehecka
1–0
Nuno Borges
(1 last)
- 04 Feb2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jiri Lehecka 1585 · Nuno Borges 1523
| Jiri Lehecka | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jiri Lehecka (rating 1585 vs 1523).
- Jiri Lehecka dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 42.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jiri Lehecka 1–0 Nuno Borges (1).
Statistics
| Jiri Lehecka | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.8 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-11.1 | 12.3-12 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 81.3% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 35.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.72
H2H · Jiri Lehecka 1 – 0 Nuno Borges (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiri Lehecka 1–0 Nuno Borges
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/23 Davis Cup | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jiri Lehecka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Ben Shelton Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-21 | L |
| 03/09 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jiri Lehecka vs Nuno Borges?
Our model gives 67% to Jiri Lehecka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.