Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
8-2 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Fils
1–0
Pavel Kotov
(1 last)
- 05 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1611 · Pavel Kotov 1573
| Arthur Fils | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Arthur Fils 1–0 Pavel Kotov (1).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-9.8 | 12.8-11 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 72% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 36.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.4
Over 19.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 27% · 1.90
H2H · Arthur Fils 1 – 0 Pavel Kotov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fils 1–0 Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/23 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 02/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Luca Van Assche ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Martin Damm ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Martin Damm ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Luca Castelnuovo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 72% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.