Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jenson Brooksby
Team pages: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Jenson Brooksby
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Jenson Brooksby
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
9-1 (W-L)
Jenson Brooksby
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1–1
Jenson Brooksby
(2 last)
- 22 Oct2-1 19-16W
- 22 Oct0-2 5-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1565 · Jenson Brooksby 1498
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Jenson Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (rating 1565 vs 1498).
Statistics
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Jenson Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-12.3 | 12.5-12 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 56.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.5
Over 22.5: 67% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 33% · 1.80
H2H · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 1 Jenson Brooksby (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1–1 Jenson Brooksby
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/25 ATP Basel | 2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 22/10/21 ATP Antwerp | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-31 | L |
| 03/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
Jenson Brooksby
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Sebastian Baez ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Jaime Faria US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-24 | L |
| 25/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Adam Walton ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jenson Brooksby?
Our model gives 63% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.