Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Daniel Altmaier
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Daniel Altmaier
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
4-6 (W-L)
Daniel Altmaier
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
0–1
Daniel Altmaier
(1 last)
- 19 May1-2 16-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1608 · Daniel Altmaier 1472
| Ben Shelton | Daniel Altmaier | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ben Shelton (rating 1608 vs 1472).
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 9.1 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 0–1 Daniel Altmaier (1).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Daniel Altmaier | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.5 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.5-17 | 10.6-13.9 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +5.7
Over 20.5: 84% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 16% · 1.83
H2H · Ben Shelton 0 – 1 Daniel Altmaier (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 0–1 Daniel Altmaier
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 ATP Hamburg | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Daniel Altmaier
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Holger Rune ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Jie Cui ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 26/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier?
Our model gives 78% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.