Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 09:00
Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery
Team pages: Karen Khachanov · Arthur Fery
Prediction summary
Winner
Karen Khachanov
Arthur Fery
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Fery
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karen Khachanov 1550 · Arthur Fery 1521
| Karen Khachanov | Arthur Fery | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 49.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Karen Khachanov | Arthur Fery | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-12.8 | 12.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 79.6% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Arthur Fery
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 19/09 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/08 | James Duckworth ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery?
Our model gives 60% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.