Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Yi Zhou · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Yi Zhou
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yi Zhou
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yi Zhou 1480 · Lorenzo Musetti 1536
| Yi Zhou | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1480 vs 1536).
Statistics
| Yi Zhou | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.3 | 12.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.1
Over 20.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 36% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Jie Cui Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Michael Geerts Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 71% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.