Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Yannick Hanfmann · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Yannick Hanfmann
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
26.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yannick Hanfmann
4-6 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yannick Hanfmann
1–1
Frances Tiafoe
(2 last)
- 03 Oct2-1 18-10W
- 12 Jun0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yannick Hanfmann 1494 · Frances Tiafoe 1572
| Yannick Hanfmann | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1494 vs 1572).
- Yannick Hanfmann dominates on serve: 10.7 aces and 43.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Yannick Hanfmann | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-13.1 | 17-15.5 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 73% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.4
Over 22.5: 78% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 22% · 1.83
H2H · Yannick Hanfmann 1 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yannick Hanfmann 1–1 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 12/06/24 ATP Stuttgart | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yannick Hanfmann
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 28/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 24/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Kei Nishikori ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 65% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.