Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 10/10, 04:00
Prediction: Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman Safiullin
Team pages: Francisco Cerundolo · Roman Safiullin
Prediction summary
Winner
Francisco Cerundolo
Roman Safiullin
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francisco Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Roman Safiullin
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francisco Cerundolo
1–1
Roman Safiullin
(2 last)
- 06 Nov2-0 12-8W
- 02 Jul2-3 25-28L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francisco Cerundolo 1536 · Roman Safiullin 1567
| Francisco Cerundolo | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 50% break avg.
- Note: Francisco Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Francisco Cerundolo | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.2 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.2-14.2 | 12.3-8.9 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 76.3% |
| Break % | 36.5% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.6
Over 23.5: 54% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 46% · 1.80
H2H · Francisco Cerundolo 1 – 1 Roman Safiullin (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francisco Cerundolo 1–1 Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/24 ATP Belgrade | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07/24 Wimbledon | 2-3 | 25-28 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Casper Ruud Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 20/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/09 | Yanki Erel Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 05/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 03/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 01/09 | Filip Misolic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman Safiullin?
Our model gives 51% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.