Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 10:30
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Tomas Machac
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Tomas Machac
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
6-4 (W-L)
Tomas Machac
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Bublik
2–0
Tomas Machac
(2 last)
- 20 Jun2-0 13-9W
- 26 Feb2-1 15-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1495 · Tomas Machac 1458
| Alexander Bublik | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexander Bublik 2–0 Tomas Machac (2).
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-12.2 | 10.4-13.7 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 24.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Bublik 2 – 0 Tomas Machac (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Bublik 2–0 Tomas Machac
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/25 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/02/24 ATP Dubai | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac?
Our model gives 59% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.