Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Flavio Cobolli
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Flavio Cobolli
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
5-5 (W-L)
Flavio Cobolli
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1501 · Flavio Cobolli 1515
| Adrian Mannarino | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-13.5 | 15.1-16.1 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 30.1% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3
Over 22.5: 72% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 28% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
| 22/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 61% to Flavio Cobolli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.