Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
8-2 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1538 · Andrey Rublev 1548
| Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 41.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.5-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-13.1 | 15.2-14 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 23.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.5
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 01/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 62% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.