Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Arthur Gea · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Gea
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Gea
6-4 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Gea 1569 · Ugo Humbert 1489
| Arthur Gea | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1569 vs 1489).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Arthur Gea is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.8/match).
- Note: Ugo Humbert makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Gea | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.3 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-14.5 | 12.5-12.7 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.6
Over 24.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Ugo Humbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 28/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 58% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.