Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
3-7 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
1–0
Brandon Nakashima
(1 last)
- 17 Jan3-1 23-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1508 · Brandon Nakashima 1536
| Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini 1–0 Brandon Nakashima (1).
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.6 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.5-16.6 | 13.7-12.2 |
| Aces | 13 | 10.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.8
Over 24.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 38% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 1 – 0 Brandon Nakashima (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 1–0 Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/22 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Jakub Mensik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 57% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.