Prediction: Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi
Team pages: Matteo Covato · Mwendwa Mbithi
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Covato
Mwendwa Mbithi
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Covato
3-7 (W-L)
Mwendwa Mbithi
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Covato 1431 · Mwendwa Mbithi 1494
| Matteo Covato | Mwendwa Mbithi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mwendwa Mbithi (rating 1431 vs 1494).
- Mwendwa Mbithi is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Covato | Mwendwa Mbithi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-12.6 | 11.9-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 24.1% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Covato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Stefan Seifert M15 Forbach |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Victor Barrere M15 Forbach |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Fausto Tabacco Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luca Wiedenmann M25 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Denis Yevseyev M25 Ueberlingen |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Adrien Berrut M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Joshua Peck M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Mwendwa Mbithi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Juan Sebastian Dominguez Collado M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Andres Delgadillo M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Alvin Nicholas Tudorica M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/07 | Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/07 | Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/07 | Mauricio Echazu M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 05/07 | Christopher Papa Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 02/05 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi?
Our model gives 69% to Mwendwa Mbithi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.