Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1575 · Matteo Arnaldi 1463
| Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1575 vs 1463).
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Matteo Arnaldi makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.1 | 13.9-16.4 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Timofey Skatov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Rigele Te ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 50% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.