Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Tallon Griekspoor
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Tallon Griekspoor
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
6-4 (W-L)
Tallon Griekspoor
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavel Kotov
3–2
Tallon Griekspoor
(5 last)
- 14 Oct0-2 7-12L
- 20 Oct2-0 13-8W
- 16 Jan0-3 12-19L
- 06 Apr2-1 12-10W
- 23 Apr2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1575 · Tallon Griekspoor 1469
| Pavel Kotov | Tallon Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1575 vs 1469).
- Pavel Kotov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Pavel Kotov 3–2 Tallon Griekspoor (5).
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Tallon Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.3 | 14-14.6 |
| Aces | 7 | 10.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 34% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Pavel Kotov 3 – 2 Tallon Griekspoor (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavel Kotov 3–2 Tallon Griekspoor
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/24 ATP Stockholm | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/10/23 ATP Stockholm | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/01/23 Australian Open | 0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 06/04/22 ATP Marrakech | 2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 23/04/19 Challenger Francavilla | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Martin Damm ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Luca Castelnuovo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Tallon Griekspoor
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Nicolas Mejia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 09/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/06 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor?
Our model gives 52% to Tallon Griekspoor, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.