Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:00
Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Dalibor Svrcina
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Dalibor Svrcina
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
5-5 (W-L)
Dalibor Svrcina
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1501 · Dalibor Svrcina 1557
| Cameron Norrie | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalibor Svrcina (rating 1501 vs 1557).
- Dalibor Svrcina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 50.5% break avg.
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (7.5/match).
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.7-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.4 | 15-13 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 7.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.4
Over 21.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 27% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Billy Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 24/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Rio Noguchi ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Philip Sekulic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Valentin Royer US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 28/08 | Mackenzie McDonald US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina?
Our model gives 52% to Cameron Norrie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.